Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-22 0.014186 0.016070 0.018115 0.020498 0.023202 0.026174 0.029693
2025-06-29 0.010960 0.013492 0.016478 0.020262 0.024934 0.030523 0.037727
2025-07-06 0.008946 0.011655 0.015036 0.019570 0.025504 0.033025 0.043307
2025-07-13 0.008068 0.011011 0.014859 0.020268 0.027695 0.037568 0.051742
2025-07-20 0.007331 0.010416 0.014615 0.020762 0.029562 0.041756 0.060022
2025-07-27 0.006782 0.009989 0.014514 0.021385 0.031598 0.046286 0.069146
2025-08-03 0.006113 0.009302 0.013950 0.021244 0.032461 0.049151 0.076048
2025-08-10 0.005582 0.008753 0.013517 0.021227 0.033462 0.052249 0.083523
2025-08-17 0.005043 0.008132 0.012905 0.020853 0.033841 0.054379 0.089618
2025-08-24 0.004712 0.007803 0.012709 0.021100 0.035203 0.058136 0.098638
2025-08-31 0.004341 0.007371 0.012300 0.020951 0.035878 0.060802 0.106037
2025-09-07 0.004138 0.007196 0.012295 0.021467 0.037700 0.065506 0.117323
2025-09-14 0.003722 0.006628 0.011587 0.020727 0.037312 0.066441 0.122152
2025-09-21 0.003428 0.006245 0.011168 0.020456 0.037729 0.068822 0.129827
2025-09-28 0.003100 0.005773 0.010546 0.019758 0.037293 0.069603 0.134556
2025-10-05 0.003006 0.005722 0.010679 0.020463 0.039524 0.075481 0.149544
2025-10-12 0.002891 0.005619 0.010705 0.020962 0.041398 0.080827 0.163971
2025-10-19 0.002801 0.005555 0.010796 0.021592 0.043575 0.086932 0.180477
2025-10-26 0.002625 0.005307 0.010512 0.021449 0.044187 0.089978 0.190953
2025-11-02 0.002478 0.005105 0.010300 0.021432 0.045046 0.093584 0.202919
2025-11-09 0.002305 0.004835 0.009931 0.021054 0.045116 0.095553 0.211524
2025-11-16 0.002209 0.004718 0.009862 0.021304 0.046538 0.100480 0.227078
2025-11-23 0.002081 0.004523 0.009618 0.021153 0.047074 0.103538 0.238697